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* The Israeli military said Wednesday that the Kerem Shalom crossing — closed on Sunday after a rocket attack killed four soldiers — "is now open for the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip." [AA](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-claims-to-have-opened-kerem-shalom-crossing-with-gaza-amid-attacks-on-rafah/3213337) * However, aid trucks are still reportedly waiting to enter Gaza, with the US saying that aid could not get through "because of logistical and security concerns" on the ground. [BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68975398) * The UN and aid organizations have said that al-Muwasi, the area to which Palestinians in Gaza have been told to evacuate, is not ready to shelter the evacuees. Palestinians have also reportedly sought refuge in Khan Younis or central Gaza. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-hamas-rafah-palestinians-evacuees-refugees-2f4e37cb3e40560f4980d8a70baaa81e) * After the US halted weapons shipments to Israel over the weekend, Israeli officials told their American counterparts that the timing of the move would jeopardize efforts to secure a deal for the release of hostages and a temporary cease-fire. [Axios (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/08/israel-us-weapons-pause-rafah-hostage-talks) * Meanwhile, Hamas claimed responsibility for firing eight rockets at southern Israel from the Rafah area, adding that it targeted a military position near Kerem Shalom. No casualties or damage was reported. [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-8-rockets-fired-from-rafah-toward-southern-israel-no-injuries-reported/) * The Gaza cease-fire proposal that Hamas agreed to this week reportedly includes the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli forces away from densely populated areas, and clauses calling for guarantees that the war will not resume. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/text-of-the-ceasefire-proposal-approved-by-hamas) **Pro-establishment narrative:** * Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand and must be remedied. Netanyahu must stop politizing negotiations and come to an agreement that gets the hostages back and calms tensions. [NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/world/europe/netanyahu-israel-gaza-ceasefire.html) **Pro-Israel narrative:** * Israel has reached a decisive point in this conflict. If the nation gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to Israel's enemies that the country is weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7, which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war. [JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-800056) **Pro-Palestine narrative:** * The most consistent obstacle in these negotiations has been Netanyahu and his far-right government. If Netanyahu hadn't been hellbent on salvaging his political career and the Biden administration hadn't been so weak, thousands of lives may have been saved. Either way, the ball is in Israel's court, and everything must be done to ensure the end of this brutal war on Gaza. [MIDDLE EAST EYE](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/hamas-says-it-accepted-ceasefire-proposal-qatar-and-egypt) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance that at least 500K Palestinians will be displaced from Gaza before Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19949/500000-palestinians-displaced/)
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* On Thursday, Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that Iran could change its nuclear doctrine and pursue the production of nuclear weapons if the country's existence were to be threatened. [reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-change-nuclear-doctrine-if-existence-threatened-adviser-supreme-leader-says-2024-05-09/) * Kharrazi is quoted as saying that if Israel were to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, which it has long insisted are for peaceful purposes, the country's "deterrence will change" and it will be left with "no choice" but to build nuclear weapons. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/9/iran-warns-it-will-change-nuclear-doctrine-if-existence-threatened) * Israel and Iran, long-time geopolitical enemies, have engaged in a military tit-for-tat since April when Iran launched 300 drones and missiles towards Israel in response to an Israeli strike on their embassy in Damascus. [english.alarabiya.net](https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2024/05/09/iran-has-capability-to-build-nuclear-weapon-if-threated-advisor-to-supreme-leader-) * Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 60% purity, with 90% purity needed for nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates that Iran could produce two nuclear weapons with the amount of uranium it possesses. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/9/iran-warns-it-will-change-nuclear-doctrine-if-existence-threatened) * Khamenei had issued a fatwa, a religious ruling, against nuclear weapons in the 2000s that he reiterated in 2019. In 2022, Kharrazi said that Iran had the ability to make nuclear weapons but was undecided on the matter. [Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-nuclear-bomb-israel-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-b2542126.html) * On Tuesday, the IAEA chief said Iran's cooperation has been "unsatisfactory," as attempts have failed to get Iran to comply with the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal that the US withdrew from in 2018. [timesofisrael.com](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-it-will-change-nuclear-doctrine-and-build-bombs-if-existence-threatened/) **Pro-establishment narrative:** * It is of the utmost importance that Israel curb its aggression against Iran to avoid inflaming further tensions. Instead, the global community needs to come together to isolate Iran and not give in to these brazen nuclear provocations, avoiding any direct confrontations. To avoid a disastrous war, and hasten the downfall of an unpopular regime, deterrence and isolation are the prudent choice. [NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/14/opinion/israel-iran-attack.html) **Pro-Israel narrative:** * The genocidal regime in Tehran has indicated that it will rule out nothing to destroy Israel. While the West is focused on mollycoddling Iran, the ayatollah will continue working towards a nuclear arsenal and supporting a proxy war against Israel. Washington's policy of restraint has not deterred Iran or its nuclear ambitions, but a strong show of force to protect Israel will. [JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/going-in-circles-critics-of-israels-policy-on-iran-have-dangerous-logic-analysis-800449) **Establishment-critical narrative:** * The settler-colonial state of Israel is intent on wiping out any opposition to their antagonizing influence on the region. Iran is merely acting in their own self-interest in the face of ferocious Israeli and Western aggression and is entitled to take any steps necessary to ensure the survival of the republic. This statement is only of concern to those war-mongers who seek to destroy Iran. [IRNA](https://en.irna.ir/news/85471128/Iran-will-have-to-change-nuclear-doctrine-if-existence-threatened) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 51% chance Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/)
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* According to a new report from climate think tank Ember, renewable energy powered 30% of the world's electricity last year, up from 19% 24 years ago. Researchers said this was due to a large increase in wind and solar power. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/renewable-energy-passes-30-of-worlds-electricity-supply) * With the inclusion of nuclear energy, 40% of electricity was generated by renewable energy last year. The change has resulted in a record low carbon intensity, down 12% from its 2007 peak. [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://cnn.com/2024/05/08/climate/clean-energy-milestone-ember/index.html) * The country with the highest percentage of renewables-generated electricity was Chile at 20%, followed by Greece (19%), Hungary (18%), and the Netherlands (17%). However, the EU leads the rest of the world with, 44% of its electricity coming from green energy. [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/05/08/a-major-turning-point-more-than-30-of-worlds-energy-now-comes-from-renewables-report-revea) * Solar energy, which remained the fastest-growing renewable energy source for the 19th straight year, produced twice as much power as coal last year. Hydropower energy, however, was at a five-year low due to droughts in China and other regions of the world. [Tech Digest](https://www.techdigest.tv/2024/05/world-passes-30-renewable-electricity-milestone-claims-new-report.html) * The report analyzed 80 countries — representing 92% of global electricity — alongside historical data for 215 countries. Ember projects says this research will lead to a 2% reduction in global fossil fuel production in 2024. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/renewable-energy-passes-30-of-worlds-electricity-supply) * Ember's European Program Director Sarah Brown said the EU is on track to reach its 72% renewable energy goal by 2030. Meanwhile, four countries impacted by drought — China, India, Vietnam, and Mexico — accounted for 95% of the rise in global coal usage. [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/05/08/a-major-turning-point-more-than-30-of-worlds-energy-now-comes-from-renewables-report-revea) **Narrative A:** * Despite hiccups with hydropower, the entire world seems to be on track to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal. With years of steady increases in solar and wind-generated electricity, including from countries like China, we now know what it takes to make the world renewable. Electricity is a top source of emissions, which also means making it green will be a leading cause of lowering CO2. [EMBER](https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2024/) **Narrative B:** * While headlines about growing renewable energy superficially appear positive, the story is much more depressing for working class people on the ground. From California in the US to Germany and France, the rapid passage of climate legislation across the West has wrecked the finances of farmers and homeowners. Renewable energy certainly has the potential to become the future, but efforts to increase the rapidity of infrastructure change are economically unsustainable. [WSJ.COM (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/green-energy-taxes-governments-consumers-7439400d) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 50% chance that at least 5.36K terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from solar power worldwide in the year 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9190/twh-of-electricity-from-solar-in-2030/)
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* Pres. Joe Biden warned against the threat of antisemitism in the US, and reaffirmed his support for Israel amid its polarizing campaign in Gaza during a speech delivered Tuesday at the Capitol's Emancipation Hall. [Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-condemn-antisemitism-praise-free-speech-holocaust-remembrance-2024-05-07/) * The president also denounced the Hamas Oct. 7 attack and called for students protesting the war in Gaza to refrain from antisemitism, hate speech, and threats of violence of any kind. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/us/politics/biden-antisemitism-holocaust-remembrance-ceremony.html) * These remarks — part of the US Holocaust Memorial Museum's Annual Days of Remembrance ceremony in honor of victims of the Nazis — come as college campus demonstrations have ramped up across the US. [CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-holocaust-remembrance-ceremony-antisemitism/) * According to a survey published by Axios earlier this week, however, only a small minority (8%) of college students have participated in either side of the protests. [Axios (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/07/poll-students-israel-hamas-protests) * Biden further declared that America and the world have seen a "ferocious surge" of antisemitism since the war started, with the White House directing new actions to fight antisemitism and other forms of hate speech. [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-set-deliver-major-speech-antisemitism-holocaust-remembrance/story?id=109967829) * Last week, the US House of Representatives passed a law that would require colleges to enforce a specific definition of antisemitism on college campuses. Between 2021 and 2022, the FBI reported a 36% increase in anti-Jewish hate incidents [Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-condemn-antisemitism-praise-free-speech-holocaust-remembrance-2024-05-07/) **Narrative A:** * Pres. Biden has demonstrated great leadership in the face of political pushback by the misinformed masses, and his speech against antisemitism reaffirms US support for the Jewish people. Virulent antisemitic tropes have resurfaced since Oct. 7, and Israel is being smeared as a genocidal nation for defending itself following the brutal attack. While some young people on college campuses may not understand the gravity of their anti-Jewish rhetoric, Biden and other US leaders understand that antisemitism has no place in America. [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/07/opinions/columbia-university-israel-campus-protests-antisemitism-ghitis/index.html) **Narrative B:** * Joe Biden continues to bow down to Israel and shamelessly label Pro-Palestine protests as "antisemitic." There's nothing hateful about peacefully opposing Israel's genocide that has killed roughly 40K Palestinians in seven months. Young voters who have historically backed the Democratic Party cannot continue to do so, and many people are realizing the Zionist grip on both parties. Shame on Biden for demonizing protesters, and shame on the US for sponsoring genocide. [COUNTERPUNCH (LR: 1 CP: 1)](https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/05/07/genocide-joe/) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance that at least 114K US Jews will move to Israel by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8096/aliyah-from-us-before-2050/)
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* German police dismantled a pro-Palestinian encampment at the Free University of Berlin on Tuesday at the request of the school, on claims that demonstrators rejected attempts to engage in dialogue and attempted to occupy rooms and lecture halls. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/7/police-break-up-pro-palestine-protests-at-berlin-amsterdam-campuses) * Earlier that day, police in the Netherlands cleared a protest at the University of Amsterdam, arresting over a hundred people, so as to "restore order," after clashes reportedly broke out on the campus the previous night between rival groups. [FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)](https://www.foxnews.com/world/anti-israel-encampment-university-amsterdam-netherlands-police-immediately-take-action) * In France, police officers moved in at the Sciences Po university to disperse students who had barricaded themselves in the main hall, as well as at the nearby Sorbonne, as protesters occupied an amphitheater for two hours. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/08/pro-palestine-student-protests-campuses-europe-arrests-police) * The ETH Zurich University in Switzerland also announced that police had begun to disperse pro-Palestinian protesters after repeated requests for them to leave the building. [Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/police-clear-protest-swiss-university-gaza-demonstrations-spread-2024-05-07/) * This comes as campus protests and encampments demanding their institutions cut academic ties with Israel and divest business linked to the country have spread across Europe, including to Oxford and Cambridge in UK. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/amsterdam-campus-protest-gaza-europe-palestinians-israel-1eeb4e07231ebcc6776319ff0663db66) * Pro-Palestinian Oxbridge students set up so-called "liberated zones" at their universities early Monday morning, with Oxford faculty and staff members issuing a statement backing the demonstrators. [Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/oxford-cambridge-students-protests-gaza-israel-war-b2540612.html) **Left narrative:** * It's no surprise that police officers have forcefully removed peaceful pro-Palestinian student demonstrators. The organized sit-ins at many major European universities, protesting the support of their countries for the Israeli assault on Gaza, were met with similar resistance in America. Hats off to these brave young people who are honoring Europe's centuries-old tradition of standing up to the evils of the day. [EURONEWS](https://www.euronews.com/culture/2024/05/05/crying-out-for-change-a-short-history-of-student-protests-in-europe) **Right narrative:** * It's reasonable that many of the European students trying to replicate college campus protests that have rocked the US do genuinely care for the plight of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, as Hamas uses them as human shields. However, many other protesters have outrageously praised the terror group behind the Oct. 7 attack on Israel — antisemitism has yet again found a home on the left. [EUROPEANCONSERVATIVE](https://europeanconservative.com/articles/commentary/ideological-bedfellows-in-the-gaza-debate/) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19716/power-in-gaza-strip-on-january-1-2025/)
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* TikTok said Thursday that it will start automatically tagging artificial intelligence (AI)-created content, making it the first-ever video-sharing platform to identify such material to users. [Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.forbes.com/sites/caileygleeson/2024/05/09/tiktok-will-start-automatically-labeling-ai-generated-content-the-first-video-sharing-app-to-do-so/?sh=3e6aad9f11bd) * Using a technology called Content Credentials — from the Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA) — it began adding metadata to label AI-generated visuals on Thursday. Audio content will soon be authenticated as well, it said. [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/05/09/tiktok-begins-labelling-ai-generated-content) * The use of tools such as those from C2PA, which are designed to make it easy for creators to "responsibly explore" online content, comes amid growing concerns surrounding viral fake images, particularly of celebrities. [NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/tiktok-will-automatically-label-ai-generated-content-rcna151446) * In a statement, TikTok said that while artificial intelligence unlocks creative potential it also misleads viewers, so "labeling helps make that context clear." [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ai-94c36dae1934920622fc5c54638e3010) * The news comes as the global tech industry at large has been looking to bolster AI safeguards. Meta, for instance, is developing its own technical standards to identify such content. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ai-94c36dae1934920622fc5c54638e3010) * TikTok, and its parent company ByteDance, also sued the US government earlier this week over a law mandating the app's sale or ban amid worries that it may spread propaganda. [ft.com](https://www.ft.com/content/658c91f5-9eb2-4863-be0b-ee16ad1bc96c) **Narrative A:** * It's hard to take tech companies seriously when they pledge to monitor AI, since their apps actively use AI to incentivize the most sensational and salacious videos. TikTok's "Creativity Program Beta" supports this trend, rewarding videos over 60 seconds long with high engagement. YouTube Shorts uses similar monetization, enabling creators to profit from misinformation while increasing the societal risks of AI-generated content. It cannot be left up to the tech industry to self regulate. [PCGAMER](https://www.pcgamer.com/software/ai/tiktok-is-becoming-swamped-with-ai-generated-conspiracy-theory-content-thanks-to-a-new-financial-incentive-program-for-creators/) **Narrative B:** * TikTok no longer permits harmful, misleading, or false content on its platform. Due to the potential significant harm caused by social media content, including physical, psychological, societal, and property damage, the platform uses both fact-checking partners and a database to ensure the utmost content accuracy and avoid misinformation. Its initiative to tag AI-generated visuals will further reduce this potential for risk. [TIKTOK](https://www.tiktok.com/community-guidelines/en/integrity-authenticity/) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 50% chance that a top celebrity musician will accuse AI of unfairly mimicking their style by Sept. 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13058/top-musician-accuses-ai-of-plagiarism/)
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* According to a report published by Reuters, OpenAI could unveil its AI-driven search tool on Monday, extending its ChatGPT platform to compete with Google. [reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-plans-announce-google-search-competitor-monday-sources-say-2024-05-09/) * OpenAI's new product will reportedly let ChatGPT provide web-sourced answers with citations like Wikipedia, blog posts, and images alongside written responses. [Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/openai-is-readying-an-ai-search-product-to-rival-google-perplexity) * While the Google search rival hasn't appeared on OpenAI's official update list, a Reddit user has found SSL certificates for "search.chatgpt.com." [Tech.co](https://tech.co/news/chatgpt-search-engine-rival-google) * It's reported that OpenAI may make the announcement a day before Google's annual I/O conference, during which the tech giant is expected to unveil multiple new AI-related products. [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/05/38751052/googles-new-rival-may-finally-be-here-sam-altmans-openai-could-launch-it-just-ahead-of-search-giants) * In July 2023, Google reportedly led the global desktop search market with an 81.95% share, while Bing held 10.51%, and Yahoo 2.67%. [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/05/38751052/googles-new-rival-may-finally-be-here-sam-altmans-openai-could-launch-it-just-ahead-of-search-giants) **Narrative A:** * Even long-time Google users will explore new artificial intelligence-powered search engines. Perplexity, for instance, summarizes results with source links and has a "Copilot" feature, while its Pro version offers access to various AI models. Although the long-term impact of new AI on digital content consumption remains uncertain and will be debated, a challenge to Google is certainly arising in what could be a major market shift. [NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/01/technology/perplexity-search-ai-google.html) **Narrative B:** * The advantages Google enjoys over other search engines are monumental, including an ingrained habit among millions of its users and intuitive search results. Its strong reputation fosters user trust, and it seamlessly integrates services like Maps, yet remains free and convenient. There's a high probability that AI-based search engines will charge for premium features, so even if they take up some share of the market, it is unlikely they will ever come to truly challenge Google's dominance. [EITHER/VIEW](https://eitherview.com/is-perplexity-a-worthy-competitor-to-google-search/) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance that Google will be supplanted as the top search engine in the world by market share by 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21142/date-of-google-losing-search-dominance/)
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* Vermont lawmakers have approved a bill aimed at holding fossil fuel companies liable for damages caused by the climate crisis. [Politicopro](https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2024/05/07/vermont-climate-superfund-bill-draws-supermajority-vote-00156395) * The Climate Superfund Act passed with a supermajority in both the state House and Senate. If it passes a final vote in the Senate later this week, it will head to Gov. Phil Scott's desk for approval. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/09/vermont-charge-oil-industry-climate-crisis) * Modeled after the Environmental Protection Agency's superfund program, the legislation will require fossil fuel companies to pay for global warming-related extreme weather events, the cost to the state, and the share of their emissions between 1995 and 2024. [NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)](https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/vermont-climate-superfund-bill-charge-companies-weather-damages-rcna150243) * If it becomes law, the resultant revenue will reportedly be used to achieve multiple objectives, including infrastructure modernization and storm cleanup. [Planetizen](https://www.planetizen.com/news/2024/05/128902-vermont-climate-impact-fee-heads-governors-desk) * The legislation follows last summer's catastrophic flooding, which officials contend cost Vermont over $1B in property damages. State climatologists blame human-caused climate change for the extreme rain. [Vermont Public](https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2024-05-06/vermont-house-passes-climate-superfund-act-with-tripartisan-support) * Other than Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, and Maryland are all considering climate superfund bills. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/climate/how-to-make-polluters-pay.html) **Narrative A:** * Fossil fuels contribute heavily to climate change, and the companies that benefit the most from this should be held accountable. Bills like this one are necessary for addressing the impacts of climate change and providing much-needed financial resources for affected communities by ensuring they are contributing fairly to the costs of mitigation and adaptation measures. [DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND FORUMS](https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143237255) **Narrative B:** * While extreme weather events have caused unprecedented damage, bills like this may not successfully raise the funds needed to pay for repairs and mitigation efforts. Instead, the state could be overwhelmed with legal efforts and fees needed to defend and enforce the legislation. Additionally, requiring companies to pay for damages unrelated to their negligence may be unconstitutional. [NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)](https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/vermont-climate-superfund-bill-charge-companies-weather-damages-rcna150243) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance that the 2°C climate threshold will be crossed in 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/first-year-of-global-temperature-above-2c/)
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* Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery announced the upcoming launch of a new streaming package that bundles Disney+, Hulu, and Max. Starting this summer, customers can purchase the bundle through any three of the platforms. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51nz9d2w3ro) * The bundle, which will be one price, will include Disney-owned content such as Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, FX, and ABC with Warner Bros.-owned HBO, HGTV, the Food Network, and the Discovery channel, among other content. [New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)](https://nypost.com/2024/05/08/media/disney-warner-bros-join-forces-to-offer-streaming-bundle-of-disney-hulu-and-max/) * With ad-free and ad-supported options, the bundle comes as Disney subsidiary ESPN is set to offer a live sports streaming service with Warner Bros. and Fox in the fall. [Verge (LR: 2 CP: 3)](https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/8/24152397/disney-plus-hulu-max-streaming-bundle) * While pricing details have not been officially revealed yet, sources close to the matter say it will likely come at a discount. Disney+ and Hulu can be bundled for $9.99 per month, and a monthly Max subscription starts at $9.99; ad-free services are more expensive. [wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/disney-and-warner-to-offer-bundle-of-their-streaming-services-bddc1f1e?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1) * This also comes as Disney reported its first quarterly profit — for the first three months of 2024 — in years, having lost $11B since launching its streaming platform in 2019. This led to cost-cutting and price hikes for customers. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/may/09/disney-warner-bros-streaming-bundle-hulu-max) * Both companies have previously lauded bundles as a way to lower cancelation rates. Bundles are reportedly also believed to lower subscription rates. [Variety](https://variety.com/2024/digital/news/disney-plus-hulu-max-bundle-1235996533/) **Narrative A:** * Companies like Disney and Warner Bros. need to enter the bundling game not only to compete with Netflix and boost profits for shareholders, but also to appeal to customers. People are becoming very picky when deciding what to watch, which is why this move will give them access to various popular content all for one price. [YAHOO FINANCE](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-warner-bros-try-to-follow-the-consumer-with-yet-another-streaming-bundle-163529427.html) **Narrative B:** * While it may seem like Disney is lagging behind Amazon Prime Video and Netflix, it is still one of the Big Three streaming monopolies with a stranglehold on production. With Amazon's monopoly on distribution and Netflix's power over employment, these corporations are together preventing any smaller content company from ever competing in the market. [GIZMODO](https://gizmodo.com/here-s-what-the-wga-has-to-say-about-the-big-3-streamin-1850758992)
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* Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook "Bill" Hwang's trial is slated to begin Wednesday with jury selection. Archegos, a family office that managed Hwang's assets, collapsed in March 2021. [Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.reuters.com/legal/archegos-boss-bill-hwangs-trial-test-unusual-manipulation-theory-2024-05-07/) * Hwang, 60, faces 11 counts of racketeering, conspiracy, and fraud in a Manhattan court over his use of "total return swaps," volatile financial instruments Archegos allegedly used to invest in stocks without owning them. [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/07/business/bill-hwang-trial-archegos/index.html) * Prosecutors claim that Hwang used the swaps to "artificially and dramatically" inflate various securities' prices, resulting in Archegos' value growing from $1.5B to $36B between March 2020 and March 2021. [SEC.gov](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-70) * In one of the largest hedge fund blow-ups in years, Archegos' collapse cost global banks $10B, including a $5.5B loss for Credit Suisse. According to prosecutors, shareholders of companies in Hwang's portfolio lost more than $100B. [US News & World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2024-05-07/archegos-boss-bill-hwangs-trial-to-test-unusual-manipulation-theory) * Hwang's lawyers are expected to argue that the government is pursuing a novel theory of market manipulation. The former hedge fund manager has pleaded not guilty and denies all charges. [Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.reuters.com/legal/archegos-boss-bill-hwangs-trial-test-unusual-manipulation-theory-2024-05-07/) * Making their case to a jury, prosecutors could provide evidence of how Hwang sought "profitable off-ramps" for his Archegos trades and covertly committed acts he knew were unlawful. [TheFinancialTimes](https://www.ft.com/content/cfdc017e-ab42-4d6c-8626-2648ecd237bf) **Narrative A:** * Hwang engaged in one of the most damaging market manipulation schemes in recent memory and must be held accountable for the billions of dollars he cost investors and financial institutions. By abusing risky financial instruments, Hwang's attorneys will argue that none of his trades were unlawful. However, his systematic market abuse constituted a willful market manipulation to deceive investors. [BETTER MARKETS](https://bettermarkets.org/newsroom/memo-to-interested-parties-re-trial-of-former-archegos-trader-and-historic-stock-manipulator-bill-hwang/) **Narrative B:** * Though Bill Hwang didn't manage his positions especially ethically while running Archegos, he didn't commit any crimes. The government is trying to further punish him by pursuing novel market manipulation theories without precedent or legal standing. This trial could open the floodgates for prosecutors to punish all Wall Street firms and usher in arbitrary charges that aren't based on the letter of the law. [BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-05-01/bill-hwang-fights-prison-time-after-hastening-credit-suisse-collapse) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/)
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* Journalists from RAI, Italy's public broadcaster, went on a 24-hour strike on Monday to protest budget cuts and alleged repression by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government. [Mint](https://www.livemint.com/news/italys-rai-journalists-strike-over-budget-streamlining-complain-of-censorship-and-media-repression-11715041908131.html) * Usigrai, the union representing 1.6K of RAI's 2K journalists, defended the strike, calling the situation "unprecedented" and accusing Meloni's right-wing government of stifling free speech. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/journalists-at-italys-rai-strike-in-protest-at-melonis-government) * RAI radio and television journalists also protested the company's budget tightening, including hiring freezes. However, RAI said it isn't cutting jobs and is committed to protecting "pluralism and freedom of expression." [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/italy-media-rai-strike-censorship-60d6a528e93a411061d5b000c9b9fe07) * Last month, RAI canceled a monologue by Meloni's critic who was reportedly scheduled to denounce the alleged fascist ties of Meloni's Brothers of Italy party. However, RAI maintained that the broadcast was canceled for financial reasons. [AJC](https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/italys-rai-journalists-strike-over-budget-streamlining-complain-of-censorship-and-media-repression/6JHRF5Z7U5EN3FNCASG7SZH72M/) * Despite Monday's 24-hour walkout, RAI, which owns Italy's three main public TV channels, was able to air most of its programming. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/italy-media-rai-strike-censorship-60d6a528e93a411061d5b000c9b9fe07) * The strike comes after the international non-profit organization Reporters Without Borders downgraded Italy five spots to 46th out of 180 countries in its annual index of press freedom. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/italy-media-rai-strike-censorship-60d6a528e93a411061d5b000c9b9fe07) **Left narrative:** * Meloni's government has been censoring speech since it took power in 2022, and RAI journalists are striking to sound the alarm on Italy's eroding press freedom. Meloni has done little to distance herself from her party's fascist roots, and has even demonstrated her own fascistic tendencies by shutting down a monologue by an antifascist author. The Italian right seeks to seize media control, and journalists are standing up to this overreach. [GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/06/italy-rai-journalists-strike-giorgia-meloni-government) **Right narrative:** * Left-wing activists at RAI are engaging in a political protest against Italy's democratically elected government, showing how little they know about threats to press freedom. For decades, RAI was run by officials hand-picked by liberal governments, and ignored right-of-center Italians. Now, liberal journalists are protesting the fact that there's conservative representation. There's no media suppression at RAI — it's just a movement towards an even distribution of opinions. [GROUND NEWS](https://ground.news/article/palese-unirai-they-ignored-us-the-wind-has-changed) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 70% chance that Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party will win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies in the next Italian election, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19630/which-italian-party-will-win-the-most-seats/)
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* An appeals court in Hong Kong sided with the government on Wednesday, banning the popular "Glory to Hong Kong" song for the first time since Britain transferred the city back to Chinese rule in 1997. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/hong-kong-protest-song-banned-629bb787a0d4cd46a424f2696b214d41) * According to the ruling, the song can still be used for academic or journalistic purposes but its melodies and lyrics cannot be broadcast, performed, shared or reproduced with the intention to incite secession or sedition. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq5n1r300yjo) * The three-judge panel behind the decision argued that the injunction was needed due to the seriousness of the criminal problem related to the song, arguing that prosecutions alone were inadequate to safeguard national security. [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3261875/popular-protest-song-glory-hong-kong-banned-after-previous-ruling-overturned) * This comes as a lower court judge previously ruled against the government injunction to ban the unofficial anthem of Hong Kong's 2019 protests, warning that the move could have an undesirable effect. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/business/glory-to-hong-kong-court-ruling.html) * Local authorities have sought to remove the song, that includes lines such as the protest slogan "Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times," from search engines and online platforms. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/8/hong-kong-court-bans-protest-song-glory-to-hong-kong) * The Asia Internet Coalition, which counts Google and Spotify among its members, said that it has yet to assess the implications of this decision or how the ban will be implemented. [Hong Kong Free Press HKFP](https://hongkongfp.com/2024/05/08/breaking-govt-bid-to-ban-glory-to-hong-kong-protest-song-approved-by-appeals-court/) **Anti-China narrative:** * As ridiculous as it sounds, Beijing loyalists have banned a song — both lyrics and melody — on the grounds that the protest anthem threatens national security in Hong Kong. And while that move can affect even people whistling on the streets, the goal is to force censorship on tech giants' platforms. China's one country, two systems, is effectively over. [WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/19/hong-kong-song-ban-national-security-law-repression/) **Pro-China narrative:** * It's great news that the local judicial system has finally prohibited the dissemination of the controversial "Glory to Hong Kong" song, which was used to incite separatism and insult the national anthem. Despite baseless claims attempting to smear China, this injunction doesn't threaten the freedom of speech and legitimate activities related to the song. [GLOBAL TIMES](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202405/1311900.shtml) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by October 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/)
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* Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin announced on Wednesday that the country will outlaw cannabis, having been the first Asian country to decriminalize the drug two years ago. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cannabis-ffc6b02884fa58ef1cb76e1cf38210be) * In a post on X, Srettha asked the country's health ministry to re-list the drug as a narcotic, with exceptions for medicinal use. Srettha's government had previously stated their intent to pass an anti-cannabis bill by the end of the year. [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-pm-says-cannabis-be-re-listed-narcotic-by-end-2024-2024-05-08/) * Under the new policy cannabis will be a category five narcotic, making it illegal to possess and consume. The news comes the same week as the Thai Prime Minister gave 25 "red zone" provinces a 90-day deadline to tackle drug use. [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/new-thai-health-minister-signals-rethink-of-cannabis-decriminalization-policy) * Srettha has said that he wants to see "clear results" on drug crime nationwide, including a proposed change of the law to be more punitive for those possessing methamphetamine. [Bangkokpost](https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2789220/pm-cannabis-to-be-relisted-as-a-narcotic-by-year-end) * One study estimated that Thailand's cannabis market would be worth $1.2B by 2025. Cannabis industry leaders have urged the government to reconsider their stance on the drug. [Bangkokpost](https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2789220/pm-cannabis-to-be-relisted-as-a-narcotic-by-year-end) * Cannabis was first decriminalized for medicinal purposes in 2018 before recreational liberalization four years later. Smoking the drug in public remains de jure illegal, as is any product with more than 0.2% tetrahydrocannabinol. [CNN](http://cnn.com/2023/09/29/asia/thailand-cannabis-clampdown-what-next-intl-hnk/index.html) **Left narrative:** * Thailand's current drug panic is due to the government's failure to set up a proper regulatory regime rather than anything to do with the safety of cannabis itself. After opening thousands of businesses generating millions of dollars, shutting down the cannabis industry in Thailand is unlikely to end popular consumption, but will unnecessarily damage the country's economy. [PATTAYA MAIL](https://www.pattayamail.com/latestnews/news/the-thai-governments-rush-to-recriminalize-cannabis-by-christmas-will-be-a-titanic-challenge-460024) **Right narrative:** * Thailand is facing a surge in drug-related crimes, and the rapid and uncontrolled spread of cannabis is certainly a part of the equation. Existing laws were openly flouted in a way that placed children and the vulnerable at risk. Keeping the drug medically available to those that need it while banning recreational use is necessary for the maintenance of civil society. [DAILY CALLER (LR: 5 CP: 4)](https://dailycaller.com/2024/05/08/prime-minister-srettha-thavisin-ban-weed-after-decriminalization/) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 50% chance that the legal international trade of recreational cannabis will take place by Sept. 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20882/cannabis-exports/)
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* Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca on Tuesday announced that it's withdrawing its COVID vaccine globally, citing low demand and a "surplus of available updated vaccines." [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/08/astrazeneca-withdraws-covid-19-vaccine-worldwide-citing-surplus-of-newer-vaccines) * The decision comes months after the company admitted in court documents that the shot can cause a rare and dangerous side effect that leads to blood clots and low blood platelet counts. [Human Events](https://www.humanevents.com/2024/05/07/new-astrazeneca-withdraws-covid-vax-after-admitting-rare-side-effect-in-february) * Facing lawsuits by more than 50 alleged victims, AstraZeneca admitted to the UK High Court in February that its COVID vaccine "can, in very rare cases, cause" Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome. [The Telegraph](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/07/astrazeneca-withdrawing-covid-vaccine/) * AstraZeneca, which applied to voluntarily withdraw its "marketing authorisation" in the EU on March 5, argues that the timing of its latest decision was a coincidence, adding Vaxzevria is no longer being manufactured or supplied. [The Telegraph](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/07/astrazeneca-withdrawing-covid-vaccine/) * More than 3B doses of Vaxzevria were supplied globally, though it wasn't approved in the US. Australia began phasing the shot out in June 2021 due to the availability of newer vaccines, and it hasn't been available in the country since March 2023. [FOX News](https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/astrazeneca-withdraw-covid-19-vaccine-globally-demand-dips-rare-side-effects-revealed) * Developed with the University of Oxford, Vaxzervria was rolled out in January 2021 as one of the first COVID vaccines in the UK. According to AstraZeneca, the vaccine saved 6.5M lives in its first year of use. [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/08/astrazeneca-to-withdraw-covid-vaccine-worldwide-citing-drop-in-demand.html) **Pro-establishment narrative:** * AstraZeneca's COVID vaccine was a successful breakthrough that saved millions of lives and allowed many countries to survive a global pandemic. The pharmaceutical company should be very proud of its product, and there's nothing wrong with admitting that newer vaccines are better equipped to combat new COVID variants. As the COVID outbreak drifts deeper into the past, vaccine demand has slowed, meaning there's less need for numerous vaccine manufacturers. [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/08/business/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-withdrawal/index.html) **Establishment-critical narrative:** * After riding the wave of a Big Pharma response to the pandemic, the COVID vaccine bubble has finally burst economically and AstraZeneca is just one of many companies plunging off the "COVID cliff." AstraZeneca's public relations issues with vaccine side effects are secondary to the real reason it's walking away from COVID response — this was always about riding the waves of the market. The firm cashed in on a windfall and now Big Pharma is moving on. [FIERCE PHARMA](https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/many-companies-saw-revenue-declines-q1-novo-nordisk-was-big-winner) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance the US FDA and CDC will recommend at least seven SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses for at least 15% of the US on Dec. 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11268/covid-vaccine-doses-cdcfda-approved-by-2025/)
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* According to a 30-year study published in the British Medical Journal on Wednesday, a higher intake of ultra-processed food is linked to a slightly elevated risk of early death. [thehill.com](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4653805-ultraprocessed-foods-linked-to-early-death-risk-study/) * The study, which examined 115K participants, found that those who consumed an average of seven servings of ultra-processed food daily had their risk of mortality increase by 4% compared to those who had three servings a day. [Global News](https://globalnews.ca/news/10479231/ultra-processed-food-early-death-study/) * The subjects — American adults with no history of cardiovascular disease, cancer, or diabetes — completed food questionnaires every four years between 1986 and 2018. [CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ultra-processed-foods-health-30-year-study/) * The researchers found that some ultra-processed foods, including processed meats, white bread, potato chips, and sugary foods and beverages — including diet soda — were linked to higher mortality rates. [Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2024/05/08/ultraprocessed-junk-food-health-risks/) * Besides mortality, ultra-processed foods — defined by the UN as foods containing ingredients "never or rarely used in kitchens" — were linked to a 9% increase in the risk of neurodegenerative deaths. [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/08/health/ultraprocessed-foods-death-study-wellness/index.html) * According to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, an average of 57% of daily energy intake among American adults is derived from ultra-processed food. [thehill.com](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4653805-ultraprocessed-foods-linked-to-early-death-risk-study/) **Narrative A:** * Not all ultra-processed foods have been linked to increased mortality, as some healthy options, such as multigrain bread, also fall under that umbrella. The hype around ultra-processed foods is really about the broader issue of people eating poor, unbalanced diets with low nutritional content, which some ultra-processed foods can actually help alleviate. [THE CONVERSATION (LR: 2 CP: 3)](https://theconversation.com/not-all-ultra-processed-foods-are-bad-for-your-health-whatever-you-might-have-heard-229493) **Narrative B:** * The science surrounding ultra-processed foods is still fraught and murky, but the existing evidence strongly suggests that avoiding them altogether is best for individual health. In addition to the additives and unhealthy ingredients used in them, ultra-processed food undergoes chemical changes that can have additional health consequences. From obesity to diabetes and cancer, the body of evidence against ultra-processed foods is continuing to grow. [NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/well/eat/ultraprocessed-foods-harmful-health.html) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance that at least 70.1% of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/-of-americans-overweightobese-in-2030/)
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* A three-judge panel of the Georgia Court of Appeals on Wednesday announced it would hear former Pres. Donald Trump's appeal of a lower court's ruling allowing Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis to continue leading the prosecution in the case involving Trump's alleged election interference. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/trump-fani-willis-appeals-court.html) * Trump's attorneys previously sought to disqualify Willis from the case over a romantic relationship she had with Nathan J. Wade, a lawyer she hired to handle the prosecution of the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/trump-fani-willis-appeals-court.html) * Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee in March ruled Willis could remain on the case as long as she removed Wade from it. Wade resigned a few hours later. [USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/05/08/georgia-appeals-court-consider-ousting-fani-willis/73612205007/) * With McAfee's decision under review — and others facing a potential challenge by the defense — it's unlikely prosecutors will get their wish of an August trial start date, and it's more likely the case won't be heard until after the 2024 presidential election. [AJC](https://www.ajc.com/politics/analysis-what-could-appeal-of-dq-fight-mean-for-fulton-trump-case/NEVVF2FURZHPNLFK66NYR5SBYA/) * Trump and 18 others last August were named in a racketeering indictment for alleged efforts to overturn the presidential election results in Georgia. Trump has pleaded not guilty. [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/US/georgia-court-takes-trumps-appeal-willis-disqualification-ruling/story?id=110024047) * This ruling comes while Trump is in the midst of his New York trial for allegedly falsifying business documents. He also faces federal charges for allegedly attempting to stop the transfer of presidential power after the 2020 election, and separately for potentially mishandling classified documents after he left office. [CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fani-willis-appeal-georgia-fulton-county-trump-case/) **Pro-Trump narrative:** * This appeal being heard will lead to a delay that's a victory in itself for Trump. But the former president should ultimately prevail based on the preponderance of evidence that Willis — who should've been removed from this case immediately after her relationship with Wade was revealed — lied about her relationship and its impact on prosecuting this case. [PJ MEDIA (LR: 4 CP: 4)](https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/05/08/georgia-appeals-court-takes-up-trumps-challenge-against-fani-willis-n4928854) **Anti-Trump narrative:** * The delay is indeed a victory for Trump, but it's not a victory for the country or the justice system. While the former president continues to duck accountability for his criminal actions, conservative-leaning judges and courts are doing his bidding by pushing the proceedings past Election Day and to a time when a victorious Trump can better avoid facing the music. [HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fani-willis-georgia-trial-donald-trump-appeal_n_663b89cfe4b0ce3aef5195f2) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 25% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10832/donald-trump-jailed-by-2030/)
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* A Virginia school board voted for two public schools to revert to their original Confederate names early Friday. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68985412) * The Shenandoah County School Board's 5-1 vote reverses the 2020 decision to change the name of Stonewall Jackson High School to Mountain View High School and Ashby-Lee Elementary School to Honey Run Elementary School. [NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/virginia-school-board-vote-restoring-names-confederate-leaders-schools-rcna151458) * The decision, taken following a summer of intense Black Lives Matter protests, was reportedly made without public input due to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a Freedom of Information Act request, the name change happened before the board held a virtual meeting. [Real America's Voice News](https://americasvoice.news/justthenews/movement-restore-confederate-names-schools-garners-traction-0/) * In April, the Coalition for Better Schools claimed that a survey of the community found that a vast majority of respondents supported restoring the Confederate names. It tried to reverse the decision in 2022, but the school board stalled the measure in a 3-3 vote. [Wusa9.Com](https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/virginia/virginia-school-board-to-vote-whether-to-reverse-school-names-back-to-confederate-names/65-aecbdb75-9a68-4340-93cb-820e1eba108f) * The development comes after the State Supreme Court issued two rulings that limit pandemic-era school board decisions taken virtually. [Just The News](https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/education/movement-restore-confederate-names-schools-garners-traction-0) * In the wake of George Floyd's murder and the emergence of tense national discourse about race relations in 2020, at least 160 Confederate symbols have been taken down or removed from public spaces. [NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/virginia-school-board-vote-restoring-names-confederate-leaders-schools-rcna151458) **Right narrative:** * The push to restore the names of Stonewall Jackson High School and Ashby Lee Elementary is about respecting Virginia's history and honoring the democratic will of the community. For years, the legacies of Confederate icons have been tarnished by modernist historicism that ignores context and cultural significance. Moreover, the school board's rash 2020 decision ignored the will of the Shenandoah community, and the people deserve to have their voices heard. [COALITION FOR BETTER SCHOOLS](https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/shenandoah/Board.nsf/files/D4GKB24F9AEF/$file/CBS%20Restoration%20Letter.pdf) **Left narrative:** * America has been pushing to remove Confederate symbols for good reason — the treasonous and racist legacy of the Confederacy shouldn't be celebrated. Restoring the names and honoring the legacies of people like Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson actively undo steps made toward achieving racial justice, and act as a slap in the face to the Black community. Symbols of the Confederacy are symbols of bigotry, and those who support them are motivated by hate and ignorance. [DAILY KOS (LR: 1 CP: 1)](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/7/2239193/-My-Virginia-County-Is-About-to-Change-School-Names-Back-to-Confederate-Heroes) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 47% chance that the Confederate monument on Stone Mountain will be defaced or destroyed before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7552/stone-mountain-defaced-before-2035/)
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* Okaloosa County Sheriff Eric Aden on Thursday released bodycam footage of a sheriff's deputy shooting 23-year-old Roger Fortson, a Black US airman who later died of his injuries. [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://cnn.com/2024/05/09/us/roger-forston-florida-airman-shot/index.html) * Previously, police had said that the deputy, who remains unidentified, was responding to a disturbance call in progress and "reacted in self-defense after he encountered a 23-year-old man armed with a gun." [CBS (a) (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/roger-fortson-us-airman-shot-killed-florida-sheriffs-deputy/) * The airman's mother, Chantemekki Fortson, accompanied by civil rights attorney Ben Crump, Thursday held a press conference to dispute the narrative put forward by police. They asserted that the deputy went to the wrong apartment, covered the door’s peephole, and didn't announce himself. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/09/florida-airman-killed-by-police-roger-fortson) * Aden said the bodycam footage of the May 3 incident was released to dispute those assertions. The video shows the deputy twice shouting, "Sheriff’s office! Open the door!" However, the deputy steps aside after banging on the door, seemingly out of view of the peephole. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/09/florida-airman-killed-by-police-roger-fortson) * After Fortson opens the door while carrying a handgun that was pointed downwards, the deputy shouts, "Step back!" before firing off several shots. He then shouts "Drop the gun! Drop the gun!" while Fortson insists it's no longer in his possession. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/florida-deputies-black-airman-killed-c747bffae2690dd8fa0908f4b95821b6) * Crump, in response to the video, in a statement said that the officer did not tell Fortson to drop his gun before shooting and that he shot "multiple times within a split second of the door being opened." The family remains "adamant" that the deputy was at the wrong apartment. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/florida-deputies-black-airman-killed-c747bffae2690dd8fa0908f4b95821b6) * The deputy was placed on administrative leave pending the outcome of an official investigation. [CBS (b) (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/roger-fortson-us-airman-girlfriend-shooting-facetime/) **Narrative A:** * This heavily redacted video doesn't answer all the questions that need to be addressed in order for the family to get the full story. Although the sheriff claims the deputy was at the correct apartment, he was acting on fourth-hand information that could've misled him. There's also no explanation for why the deputy didn't issue multiple verbal demands and instead fired several shots. [MILITARY.COM](https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/05/09/body-cam-footage-deputy-fatally-shot-florida-airman-within-seconds-of-him-opening-apartment-door.html) **Narrative B:** * The deputy was at the correct door and announced himself, which doesn't justify the shooting but also contradicts some of the claims being made by interested outsiders. The sheriff's department will cooperate with any and all independent investigations to make sure the truth about this unfortunate incident is uncovered and these tragedies can be prevented in the future. [FOX NEWS (LR: 4 CP: 4)](https://www.foxnews.com/us/bodycam-footage-shows-moment-deputy-fatally-shoots-air-force-airman-home) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.41 small firearms per capita in the USA by Jan. 1, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/number-of-firearms-per-capita-us-2029/)
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* Adult film actress Stormy Daniels, whose alleged sexual encounter with former Pres. Donald Trump is at the center of Trump's New York criminal trial, Thursday was back on the stand for a second day. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/09/briefing/trump-trial-stormy-daniels-gaza-cease-fire-talks.html) * Trump is facing 34 charges of falsifying business records to classify as legal expenses payments made to his then-lawyer Michael Cohen. Prosecutors claim the payments were to reimburse Cohen for paying Daniels $130K to keep quiet before the 2016 presidential election about her alleged 2006 tryst with Trump. [PBS NewsHour (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/stormy-daniels-delivers-shocking-testimony-about-trump-but-trial-hinges-on-business-records) * Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, denies the encounter happened and the charges against him. His lawyer Thursday attempted to discredit Daniels by saying she made "all this up" — an accusation Daniels denied. [PBS NewsHour (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/stormy-daniels-delivers-shocking-testimony-about-trump-but-trial-hinges-on-business-records) * Previously, Daniels testified for almost five hours Tuesday, describing how she first met Trump, how their encounter unfolded, and other interactions she had with him after their first meeting. The trial was off Wednesday. [Verity](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2024/stormy-daniels-testifies-in-trump-hush-money-trial) * While requesting a mistrial Thursday, Trump lawyer Todd Blanche described some of the graphic details of Daniels' testimony — which he said had nothing to do with the case at hand — as "prejudicial." The judge denied the motion on the grounds that Trump's lawyers made denying the encounter part of their case. [Business Insider (LR: 3 CP: 4)](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-lawyer-calls-stormy-daniels-testimony-dog-whistle-for-rape-2024-5) **Pro-Trump narrative:** * This case is a farce and a politically-motivated abuse of the justice system to try to derail Trump's return to the White House. Daniels, who admits she has no knowledge about the bookkeeping at the center of this case, spent more than seven hours smearing Trump with little evidence that anything ever happened between them. In the end, Daniels' testimony backfired because she was a terrible witness. [FOX NEWS (LR: 4 CP: 4)](https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/ny-v-trump-stormy-daniels-self-destructed-devastating-cross-examination) **Anti-Trump narrative:** * Daniels delivered pertinent testimony to counter Trump and his lawyers' denials. If Trump wants to dispute Daniels' story, he can take the stand. Despite the harsh, accusatory line of questioning, Daniels held her own and made a convincing case that Trump had something he wanted to keep quiet prior to the 2016 election. [HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/stormy-daniels-testimony-trumps-hush-money-trial_n_663be115e4b0c38baf0ec262) **Nerd narrative:** * There's an 81% chance that Trump will be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15778/trump-guilty-in-manhattan-by-election-day/)
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* Large Argentine trade unions engaged in a 24-hour strike Thursday, bringing transportation and other services to a halt in protest of libertarian Pres. Javier Milei’s sweeping reforms. [Dw.Com](https://www.dw.com/en/argentina-unions-call-nationwide-strike-over-mileis-policy/a-69034891) * Many streets were unusually empty, while key bus, rail, and subway lines were closed after workers walked off the job. Hundreds of flights were canceled, and many parents kept their kids from school while teachers took the day off. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/argentina-milei-strike-protest-libertarian-economy-d9e98e30f5bdc262a6c7a0835b10c247) * The capital, Buenos Aires, saw its metro area brought to a standstill. Meanwhile, roughly 93K passengers were affected by air travel delays caused by the strike — Argentina’s second since Milei took office in December. [Buenos Aires Times](https://batimes.com.ar/news/economy/milei-faces-second-major-strike-as-argentina-resists-austerity.phtml) * Milei won the presidency after running on a libertarian platform that looks to bring Argentina out of its economic crisis. His economic “shock therapy” includes massive spending cuts and public layoffs that have sparked anger from unions. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68987998) * Milei’s omnibus bill on various economic sectors and issues is at the heart of the protests. First introduced in December, the bill passed the lower chamber of Congress after being revised and is now awaiting Senate approval to become law. [Courthouse News Service](https://www.courthousenews.com/argentinas-workers-stage-second-nationwide-strike-against-mileis-sweeping-reforms/) * Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party is 10% of the Senate, and it's unclear how the chamber will vote on the bill that would privatize many state companies, cut labor regulations, shorten maternity leave, and lower the income tax threshold. [Courthouse News Service](https://www.courthousenews.com/argentinas-workers-stage-second-nationwide-strike-against-mileis-sweeping-reforms/) **Left narrative:** * Through successful strikes, workers can show their unity in opposition to Milei’s austerity plan, which poses a dangerous threat to Argentine workers, and his “shock therapy” measures that threaten to roll back important labor and environmental protections. The people are rejecting the government’s policies and Milei’s right-wing extremism. [UNI GLOBAL UNION](https://uniglobalunion.org/news/argentine-general-strike/) **Right narrative:** * Milei took over a country in the depths of unprecedented economic and political turmoil, and he's already turning it around in six months. Once a beacon of Western excellence, Argentina was driven to a societal nadir due to leftist regimes, but Argentina is enjoying the start of a promising recovery. Milei’s market-based reforms are saving Argentina. [THE TELEGRAPH](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/04/argentina-javier-milei-proving-left-wing-economy-wrong/) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 15% chance that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before Jan. 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20056/argentinean-dollarization/)
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* North Macedonia's right-wing opposition won both the parliamentary elections and the presidential run-off held on Wednesday in the Balkan country, home to 2M people. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/north-macedonia-votes-elections-crucial-eu-accession-2024-05-07/) * With nearly all the votes counted, the Your Macedonia coalition — under the leadership of Hristijan Mickoski of the VMRO-DPMNE party— received 43% of the votes to secure 58 of the parliament's 120 seats. [Voice of America](https://www.voanews.com/a/north-macedonia-right-wing-opposition-scores-victory-in-elections/7604923.html) * Three seats shy from an outright majority government, Mickoski has announced that the 22-party Your Macedonia would begin the search for a governing partner on Thursday. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/north-macedonia-election-european-union-bulgaria-1fb55ae5be08c85ef38dde28540796b6) * The ruling Social Democrats scored their worst-ever result, coming third with 18 seats — one less than its junior partner and ethnic Albanian DUI. Though the largest Albanian party is traditionally the kingmaker, the VMRO-DPMNE has opted for Vlen, which won 13 seats. [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/05/08/north-macedonias-opposition-celebrates-crushing-double-election-victory/) * Meanwhile, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova defeated Social Democrat incumbent Stevo Pendarovski in the race for the largely ceremonial presidential role, securing nearly 65% of the votes to become the country's first female head of state. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/8/north-macedonian-elections-set-to-test-eu-ambitions) * International observers from the OSCE, Council of Europe, and European Parliament said in a statement on Thursday that the elections were competitive and peaceful, despite the negative tone of campaigning and the urgent need for reforms. [Mia.mk](https://mia.mk/en/story/north-macedonias-elections-were-competitive-and-voters-well-informed-although-the-process-remains-insufficiently-regulated-international-observers) **Narrative A:** * Frustration over the delay in North Macedonia's accession to the EU has prompted voters to side with the nationalist opposition — this choice is doomed to backfire. While the VMRO claims to support EU integration, it has yet to prove its commitment to the agenda, particularly because it seems to be willing to revive tensions with Bulgaria and Greece. [KATHIMERINI](https://www.ekathimerini.com/in-depth/analysis/1238326/clouds-over-north-macedonias-eu-ambitions-as-nationalists-sweep-to-power/) **Narrative B:** * The incumbent socialists have falsely sought to instill fear that conservatives would threaten the country's EU accession to no avail. North Macedonians have given a clear mandate for Your Macedonia to put an end to the corruption and humiliation suffered under leftist leadership in a historic vote that saw the country's highest turnout in recent times. [EUROPEANCONSERVATIVE](https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/north-macedonia-socialist-government-swept-away-in-sovereigntist-landslide/) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 90% chance that North Macedonia will be part of the European Union in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18111/eu-membership-in-2050/)
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* More than two years into the war in Ukraine, Russian forces opened up a new front by launching an offensive towards the northeastern city of Kharkiv in the early hours of Friday. [RTE.ie](https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2024/0510/1448411-kharkiv/) * Despite being only 25 miles (40 km) from the Russian border, and lying west of the Luhansk region, which is almost completely under Russian control, Ukraine's second-largest city so far hasn't fallen into Russian hands at any point in the conflict. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/29/kharkiv-ukraine-intensified-shelling) * However, shortly after securing the Russian presidential election in March, Vladimir Putin appeared to put the city in the Kremlin's crosshairs — stating that Ukrainian strikes into Russia created a need to form what he described as a "sanitary zone." [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-e7102a4f4bedd9aef8a855a7aa977f9f) * Coming a day after Russia marked "Victory Day" — celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II — Putin appears to have put plans to take the city into action. The offensive, launched at 5 am local time, was supported by armored vehicles, heavy artillery and the firing of other weapons. [UKRINFORM](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3862213-ministry-of-defense-russians-try-to-break-through-defense-line-in-kharkiv-region-in-morning-fighting-continues.html) * In a statement, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said: "As of now, these attacks have been repulsed; battles of varying intensity continue." It added that reinforcements were sent to the region to provide additional support. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sends-reinforcements-after-russian-forces-attack-kharkiv-region-2024-05-10/) * However, contradicting the official statement, a senior Ukrainian military source told Reuters that Russian forces advanced by roughly 0.6 miles (1 km) near the border town of Vovchansk. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sends-reinforcements-after-russian-forces-attack-kharkiv-region-2024-05-10/) **Pro-establishment narrative:** * Russia is likely hoping to seize on a window of opportunity to grab more territory while Ukrainian troops wait for the new US weapons packages to arrive. The Kremlin knows it will be much more difficult to have any success once the supplies of Ukrainian troops are replenished. [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/09/politics/russia-window-of-opportunity-ukraine-war/index.html) **Pro-Russia narrative:** * With Ukraine's Western partners providing it with long-range weapons that have an increased range, it was necessary for Russia to create this buffer zone so that it can keep Russian citizens safe. [TASS](https://tass.com/politics/1779847) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 3% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20752/russo-ukraine-cease-fire-in-2024/)
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* US federal prosecutors have said Ippei Mizuhara — former interpreter for Major League Baseball (MLB) pitcher Shohei Ohtani — has agreed to plead guilty to fraud charges related to an alleged sports betting scandal that robbed Ohtani of nearly $17M. [CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/shohei-ohtani-gambling-scandal-interpreter-ippei-mizuhara-to-plead-guilty-faces-up-to-33-years-in-prison/) * A US Attorney’s Office in California said Wednesday that Mizuhara will enter a plea deal in the "coming weeks" for one count of bank fraud and one count of falsifying a tax return. His arraignment is scheduled for May 14. [United States Department of Justice](https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/orange-county-man-agrees-plead-guilty-illegally-transferring-nearly-17-million-mlb) * Mizuhara had served as Ohtani’s "translator and de facto manager" since Ohtani joined the Los Angeles Angels in 2018. He began stealing money to place illegal sports bets in September 2021 through impersonation and by doctoring account information. [United States Department of Justice](https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/orange-county-man-agrees-plead-guilty-illegally-transferring-nearly-17-million-mlb) * Through March 2024, Mizuhara impersonated Ohtani at least 24 times in phone calls with bank employees and incurred nearly $41M in gambling losses. In 2022, he filed a false tax return that failed to report $4.1M to the IRS, resulting in him owing $1.15M in taxes. [ESPN.com](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40107683/shohei-ohtani-ippei-mizuhara-pleads-guilty) * Full terms of the plea deal will be determined at sentencing, but Mizuhara is expected to compensate Ohtani for the stolen $17M. His charges carry up to 33 years in federal prison, but he's reportedly expected to serve between 87 and 108 months. [MLB Trade Rumors](https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/shohei-ohtanis-former-interpreter-pleading-guilty-to-multiple-charges.html) * Ohtani’s implication in the scandal, which rocked the sports world, surfaced in March. Federal prosecutors have repeatedly described him as a "victim" who was deceived by his interpreter and friend. [NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/shohei-ohtanis-former-translator-plead-guilty-transferring-17-million-rcna151363) **Narrative A:** * All things considered, Mizuhara’s plea deal is a positive development for Ohtani that will hopefully put this scandal to rest. By all accounts, Ohtani is a victim who was exploited by his interpreter and robbed of millions, and he deserves swift justice. In addition to compensating Ohtani for his losses, this plea deal will mark the end of this unfortunate saga and allow the best player in baseball to focus all his attention on the field. [SPORTICO.COM](https://www.sportico.com/law/analysis/2024/mizuhara-plea-deal-ohtani-1234778337/) **Narrative B:** * Everything has been suspiciously quiet around Shohei Ohtani, likely due to his status as one of the MLB's most profitable players. While it appears Ohtani is a victim here, the MLB seems to be applying a different standard to Ohtani’s case than it does to other events. While players like Trevor Bauer and Pete Rose were excommunicated without committing any crimes, Shohei Ohtani’s investigation ended quickly and without any substantive comment from the league. [THE MIRROR](https://vnhsmirror.com/223863/athletics/doubling-down-on-double-standards-the-ohtani-mizuhara-case/)
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* Israeli singer Eden Golan has qualified after a public vote for the Eurovision Song Contest final, which will take place Saturday, despite being booed in the semifinal on Thursday and during dress rehearsals. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg67w7gdqvqo) * This comes as thousands marched in Malmö, Sweden to protest Israel's participation in the competition while its campaign in Gaza continues. Further demonstrations are scheduled for Saturday. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/article/2024/may/09/israel-qualifies-eurovision-song-contest-final-protests) * Ahead of her performance in the semifinal, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video message that Golan is "competing [successfully] not just in the Eurovision" but also "in the face of an ugly wave of antisemitism." [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-congratulates-eden-golan-for-competing-in-eurovision-amid-ugly-wave-of-antisemitism/) * Her song, "Hurricane," is an adaptation of an earlier version named "October Rain" that had to be modified after contest organizers considered it to be too political due to alleged allusions to the Hamas Oct. 7 attack. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/9/protesters-rally-in-sweden-against-israels-participation-in-eurovision) * European bookmakers have put Golan among the five entries likely to win the contest, along with Joost Klein of the Netherlands, Ireland's Bambie Thug, Baby Lasagna of Croatia, and Ukraine's duo Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/10/arts/music/eurovision-odds-favorites.html) * The popular European song contest attracted 216M viewers last year, nearly twice as many as this year's Super Bowl. According to the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), the music event is a competition between public service broadcasters, not governments. [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/israeli-contestant-draws-boos-controversy-eurovision-song-contest/story?id=110075019) **Pro-Palestine narrative:** * While the EBU claims that its annual song competition is apolitical, history shows that Eurovision is as political as it gets. Several countries have either been disqualified from or boycotted the contest for political reasons, including Russia, which has been banned for two years now due to its military campaign in Ukraine. Therefore, allowing Israel to compete while the country carries out brutal warfare in Gaza is nothing but a political choice. [VOX (LR: 1 CP: 3)](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24151274/eurovision-song-contest-politics-russia-ukraine-gaza-israel-palestine) **Pro-Israel narrative:** * First and foremost, there is no equivalence between Russia and Israel. If anything, Israel should be compared to Ukraine, as the wars started when both countries were attacked, not the other way round. Perhaps even more concerning is the fact that mobs in Malmö are harassing and threatening a 20-year-old woman who has nothing to do with the conflict in Gaza just because she happens to be an Israeli national and a Jew. [SPECTATOR (UK) (LR: 5 CP: 5)](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-is-the-anti-israel-eurovision-protest-really-about/) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 43% chance Croatia will win the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21826/which-country-will-win-eurovision-2024/)
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* Amid India's ongoing general election, the country's Supreme Court on Friday granted bail until June 1 to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, a key rival to Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was arrested in a corruption case in March. [Scroll.in](https://scroll.in/latest/1067713/supreme-court-grants-interim-bail-to-arvind-kejriwal-till-june-1) * The court dismissed the opposition to his bail by India's Enforcement Directorate (ED), which had arrested him on corruption charges related to Delhi's liquor policy. [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-top-court-grants-temporary-bail-opposition-leader-kejriwal-campaign-2024-05-10/) * The court ordered the former anti-corruption advocate to surrender days before the result of the Indian election is declared on June 4, allowing him to campaign until then. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-68767574) * The court has questioned the timing of Kejriwal's arrest by the Modi government-controlled ED right before the election. Delhi votes on May 25. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/10/jailed-indian-opposition-leader-arvind-kejriwal-granted-bail-take-part-election-campaign) * The ED, which has accused Kejriwal’s party and ministers of taking $12M in bribes, opposed his bail saying it sets different standards for politicians and others. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/10/indias-top-court-grants-bail-to-opposition-leader-arvind-kejriwal) **Narrative A:** * Modi's government is using agencies to target opposition leaders and disrupt election campaigns. The government's coercive tactics suggest a power struggle to dominate the political landscape, prompting concerns over authoritarian tendencies and the need for public vigilance to safeguard democratic principles. [THE WIRE](https://thewire.in/politics/kejriwal-arrest-this-coup-against-our-constitutional-setup-is-a-wake-up-call) **Narrative B:** * Claims of India turning into an autocracy are misleading. The judicial process is evidence-based, regardless of a person's public status. The opposition's support for Kejriwal, despite serious allegations against him, is merely a political strategy amid elections. Shun the victimhood narrative and focus on legal procedures. [FIRSTPOST](https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/ed-delihi-liquorgate-scam-arvind-kejriwal-aap-13753453.html) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 50% chance that India's score will be 6.324 in the Democracy Index in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7781/indian-democracy-index-in-2030/)
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* On Thursday, a chartered Air Senegal Boeing 737-300 skidded off the runway during takeoff in Dakar, injuring 10 people. The same day, a Corendon Airlines 737-800 in Turkey needed to be evacuated after its tires burst during landing. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/9/boeing-737-plane-skids-off-runway-in-senegal-tyre-bursts-in-turkey) * These are the latest in a series of high-profile safety incidents that have plagued Boeing. In response, the US Federal Aviation Authority in February gave the company 90 days to come up with a plan to fix quality and safety issues. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/senegal-dakar-plane-crash-boeing-ca40060696eaedfb69324d9110a55c60) * In Senegal, an inquiry is underway into the cause of the skid, which led to four serious injuries and the evacuation of 78 passengers. The flight from Dakar to Bamako, Mali took off in the early morning; Boeing has not made comment. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce5ljpnggp4o) * The incident at Gazipasa Airport in Turkey led to the evacuation of all 190 on board and saw no injuries, with authorities saying the plane was left with minor damages after the tires burst on landing. [Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/boeing-737-turkey-plane-gazipasa-b2542240.html) * These incidents came one day after a FedEx Airlines Boeing 767 in Turkey needed to make an emergency landing after a landing gear malfunction. [New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)](https://nypost.com/2024/05/09/world-news/passengers-flee-boeing-737-that-skidded-off-runway-in-senegal/) * In April, whistleblower Sam Salehpour testified to the US Congress that Boeing was cutting corners in production. The company has been under renewed scrutiny since a January incident where the door of a 737 Max blew out mid-flight. [FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)](https://www.foxnews.com/world/boeing-737-catches-fire-skids-off-runway-senegals-main-airport) **Narrative A:** * Boeing, once a company with a sterling safety record, has undergone a pernicious shift that puts profit over people. The culture of engineering excellence that once made Boeing a trusted name has given way to profiteering at the expense of quality control and safety. Hundreds have died in Boeing crashes in recent years for the sake of short-term profits. [HBS WORKING KNOWLEDGE](https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/why-boeings-problems-with-737-max-began-more-than-25-years-ago) **Narrative B:** * Boeing has shouldered all of the blame for incidents that could be due to operator error and negligence, with the narrative of corporate greed falling apart upon closer inspection. A focus on competition and profit since the '70s has led to aircrafts becoming safer overall, with outside pressures and fluke accidents leading to the witch hunt against the plane maker. [WALL STREET JOURNAL (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.wsj.com/articles/understanding-the-boeing-mess-differences-between-737-max-crashes-media-bias-04127658)
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* The UN General Assembly (UNGA) passed a resolution on Friday calling on the Security Council to reconsider Palestine as a UN member state "favorably," stressing that “the State of Palestine is qualified for membership in the United Nations.” [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/10/middleeast/unga-palestinian-membership-resolution-intl/index.html) * In response, Israeli UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan shredded a copy of the UN charter to illustrate what he said was the General Assembly's disregard for the document, saying that the UN wanted to "advance the establishment of a Palestinian terror state led by the Hitler of our time." [USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2024/05/10/netanyahu-israel-biden-arms-warning-hamas-cease-fire-talks/73638316007/) * The US, Argentina, Czechia, Hungary, Israel, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, and Papua New Guinea voted against the resolution. The Palestinian Authority, which partially controls the West Bank, has been a UN non-member observer state since 2012. [NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-stand-alone-netanyahu-biden-rafah-weapons-hamas-rcna151608) * Meanwhile, Israel's security cabinet reportedly voted unanimously to expand the military's "area of operation" in Rafah, where Israel has already advanced into some eastern neighborhoods. US Pres. Joe Biden said this week that the US would not supply Israel with offensive weapons for an advance into Rafah. [Axios (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/10/israel-gaza-rafah-operation-expansion) * Axios reported that two officials had said that the expansion would be "measured" so that it did not cross the US' red lines. However, another source told Axios that the expansion includes actions that could be interpreted as oversteps. [Axios (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/10/israel-gaza-rafah-operation-expansion) * Meanwhile, both the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossing into Gaza remained shut as of Friday as concerns grow regarding the humanitarian situation in the besieged enclave. Rafah was the primary logistical point for aid operations in the strip. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/10/israel-gaza-war-live-rafah-offensive-hamas-unga-new-palestinian-vote) **Pro-Israel narrative:** * The UNGA has once again rewarded Hamas for the atrocities it committed on Oct. 7. It should be obvious to everyone that Palestine is not a state, and resolutions like this, passed at such a critical time in Israel's existential struggle with terror, only serve to delegitimize Israel's security concerns. [THE DAILY SIGNAL](https://www.dailysignal.com/2024/05/10/un-shouldnt-reward-palestinians-oct-7/) **Pro-Palestine narrative:** * Though the US will almost certainly veto any resolution that would lead to a Palestinian state, it is necessary to demonstrate how isolated Israel has become due to the massacres it has committed in Gaza. The resolution also demonstrates the US' hypocrisy and moral cowardice, as it endlessly shields Israel from accountability while claiming to support human rights. [MIDDLE EAST EYE](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/general-assembly-approves-pathway-full-palestinian-statehood-un)
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* Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping ended his three-day visit to Hungary on Friday, concluding his five-day European tour that included stops in France and Serbia. [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinas-xi-leaves-hungary-concludes-5-day-visit-110111359) * During the visit, Xi and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán held discussions on increasing ties between their respective countries. On Thursday, the two nations signed several strategic and economic partnership agreements. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/chinas-xi-welcomed-hungary-talks-orban-0719880a351a5ef0763ae6a623a7798b) * Although no major investments were announced, officials signed 18 agreements and memoranda of understanding. In December, Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD announced it will open its first European EV production factory in south Hungary. [NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/hungary-china-sign-strategic-cooperation-agreement-visit-xi-rcna151602) * Beijing has already invested billions in Hungary, viewing it as a gateway to the European Union. It's also financing a $2.1B high-speed rail project linking Budapest with Belgrade, Serbia. This is part of Xi’s "Belt and Road Initiative," which looks to build infrastructure and energy networks connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa. [Voice of America](https://www.voanews.com/a/china-says-it-s-increasing-ties-with-hungary-to-all-weather-partnership-/7605520.html) * This makes Hungary one of China’s closest allies in Europe, and the two sides said this week’s meetings mark a “new era” that would “continuously enhance strategic and political mutual trust.” [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3262059/hungary-rolls-out-red-carpet-chinese-president-xi-jinping-last-stop-european-trip?campaign=3262059&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article) * Under its nationalist leader, Orbán, Hungary has often diverged from the European mainstream, particularly regarding relations with China and Russia. Unlike other EU leaders, Orbán has backed China’s peace plan for Russia and Ukraine. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/09/hungary-rolls-out-red-carpet-for-xi-in-final-leg-of-european-tour) **Pro-establishment narrative:** * Xi and the Chinese Communist Party are trying to buy their way into the EU, and they're using Orbán as their bridge. China is looking to reinforce its growing influence on Europe, and Budapest has no problem obliging, even if it means undermining democratic values and Western prosperity. [ABC NEWS](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinas-xi-leaves-hungary-concludes-5-day-visit-110111359) **Establishment-critical narrative:** * As Western hegemony fades, Hungary is engaging in talks to promote peace and prosperity with all countries. Orbán is committed to ending deadly conflicts that are destroying Europe, and he understands that the global economy isn’t the same as it was 20 years ago. Hungary is looking out for its own economic interests in a way that benefits the entire world. [SPUTNIK ON X](https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1788890425907925400)
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* After launching a fresh offensive in Ukraine's eastern Kharkiv region in the early hours of Friday, Russian forces have so far captured four villages, according to Ukrainian media. [Ukrainska Pravda (a)](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/10/7455183/) * Military sources who spoke to Ukrainska Pravda said that the villages of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna and Borysivka had all fallen to Russian hands over the past day. [Ukrainska Pravda (a)](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/10/7455183/) * In a statement later in the day, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces did not concede the fall of the villages, but described them as being in a "gray zone" — adding that defensive and counteroffensive battles were ongoing. [Ukrainska Pravda (b)](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/10/7455262/) * Nonetheless, in the wake of the offensive, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Western partners to speed up weapons deliveries. "We need Ukraine's friends to stand as united as possible to speed up the supplies," he said. [Interfax](https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/985902.html) * Shortly after, the US announced a new $400M military aid package that included a variety of munitions, rockets, artillery and missile-defense systems, as well as a number of armored vehicles. The US State Department also approved the emergency sale of $30M in munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which it said would be funded by Germany. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-military-weapons-2a4762c405424b464598e2231f1de21a) * John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, said the aid was, in part, intended to help Ukraine fend off the Russian offensive in Kharkiv. "It is possible that Russia will make further advances in the coming weeks, but we do not anticipate any major breakthroughs," he added. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-military-weapons-2a4762c405424b464598e2231f1de21a) **Pro-establishment narrative:** * While Russia may make more advances, the delivery of US weapons will quickly enable Ukraine to push back against these attacks and stymie this offensive. Russia will not achieve any major breakthroughs with this effort. [AP NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-military-weapons-2a4762c405424b464598e2231f1de21a) **Pro-Russia narrative:** * With Ukraine's Western partners providing it with long-range weapons that have an increased range, it was necessary for Russia to launch this offenisve in order to create a buffer zone so that it can keep Russian citizens safe. [TASS](https://tass.com/politics/1779847) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 30% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19724/russia-expanded-territory-in-ukraine-in-2026/)
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* A State Department report to Congress released on Friday has assessed that Israel may have violated international humanitarian and human rights law in Gaza using US-supplied weapons. [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-says-it-was-reasonable-assess-israel-used-us-weapons-inconsistent-with-2024-05-10/) * However, the report added that Israel hasn't shared sufficient information to confirm if US weapons were used in a manner "inconsistent" with its international law obligations. [Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/10/us-report-punts-on-possible-israeli-violations-of-international-law-in-gaza) * Questioning the Israeli forces' efficacy in "mitigating civilian harm in its military operations," the report noted that the UN had described Israel's efforts to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza as "inconsistent, ineffective, and inadequate." [BBC News](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68984999) * The report, which refrained from attributing civilian deaths in Gaza to Israel, said that US intelligence services had found "no direct indication of Israel intentionally targeting civilians." [Intercept (LR: 1 CP: 1)](https://theintercept.com/2024/05/10/israel-human-rights-gaza-report/) * Though the UN has accused Israel of restricting humanitarian aid to Gaza, causing famine, the State Department report doesn't implicate Tel Aviv. It merely states that the aid delivered to the besieged enclave is insufficient. [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-likely-breached-international-law-us-weapons-state-department) * The report comes after the Biden administration threatened to withhold individual shipments of weapons if Israel launches a major offensive into Rafah. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/10/us-weapons-israel-human-rights-law) **Pro-Israel narrative:** * Israel has reached a decisive point in this conflict. If the nation gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to Israel's enemies that the country is weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7, which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war. [JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-800056) **Pro-Palestine narrative:** * The most consistent obstacle in negotiating a cease-fire continues to be Netanyahu and his far-right government. If he wasn't pursuing salvaging his political career — and if the Biden administration wasn't so weak geopolitically — perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, it's now up to Israel to ensure the end of this brutal war. [MIDDLE EAST EYE](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/hamas-says-it-accepted-ceasefire-proposal-qatar-and-egypt) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 5% chance that Western sources will conclude before 2025 that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19810/israel-white-phosphorus-improper-use-by-2025/)
* Police arrested dozens of pro-Palestinian activists and cleared protest tent encampments at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Pennsylvania on Friday. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/dozens-arrested-penn-mit-latest-crackdowns-gaza-protests-2024-05-10/) * According to Penn officials, 33 people, including nine Penn students, were detained on trespassing charges. [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/mit-arizona-pennsylvania-campus-protests-encampment-police-7d9cd0a1f4ac7eaca41b38de798a2217) * At MIT, police arrested 10 protesters who reportedly remained encamped despite several warnings. The detainees were also charged with trespassing and released later; their arraignments are set for July. [Boston Herald](https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/05/10/mit-anti-israel-students-look-for-housing-off-campus-next-steps-of-protest-uncertain/) * Hours later, hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters marched towards the home of Penn's interim president in Philadelphia's University City. At least three people appeared to have jumped over his fence. [NBC10 Philadelphia](https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/upenn-hundreds-protesters-presidents-house/3855806/) * MIT, Penn, and Harvard have been under scrutiny for their handling of the debate on campus over the conflict in Gaza. In a congressional hearing in December, their leaders were ambiguous on whether calling for "Jewish genocide" would violate school policies. [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/mit-harvard-penn-university-protests-antisemitism-030147c9) * Over 2.8K people have been arrested or detained on campuses nationwide since April 18, when the arrest of at least 108 pro-Palestine activists at Columbia University triggered a wave of college protests. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/pro-palestinian-college-protests-encampments.html) **Right narrative:** * The main group behind these encampments, Students for Justice in Palestine, is funded largely by George Soros' charities and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, among other wealthy elites. Organizers are paid thousands of dollars to build these encampments and buy the tents, food, and other resources used in most of them. Foreign money was likely also behind these illegal campus occupations, which is why police were justifiably called in to shut them down. [NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)](https://nypost.com/2024/04/26/opinion/soros-and-other-elites-are-funding-the-campus-agitators-stoking-anti-israel-antisemitic-protests/) **Left narrative:** * The "outside agitator" trope has been used to crack down on peaceful protests for decades. From the Ku Klux Klan lying about "communists" infiltrating the civil rights movement to alleged agitators during the 2020 BLM protests, these evidence-lacking accusations have always existed as an excuse to arrest activists. Today, however, the tactic of calling protesters antisemitic is thrown into the mix, which allows the pro-Israel side to smear anti-Zionists as anti-Jewish. [INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)](https://theintercept.com/2024/05/01/nyc-gaza-college-protests-police-outside-agitators/) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 35% chance that at least half of college students in the US will be studying exclusively remotely or online in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8493/half-of-us-college-students-remote-in-2050/)
* Police arrested dozens of pro-Palestinian activists and cleared protest tent encampments at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Pennsylvania on Friday. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/dozens-arrested-penn-mit-latest-crackdowns-gaza-protests-2024-05-10/) * According to Penn officials, 33 people, including nine Penn students, were detained on trespassing charges. [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/mit-arizona-pennsylvania-campus-protests-encampment-police-7d9cd0a1f4ac7eaca41b38de798a2217) * At MIT, police arrested 10 protesters who reportedly remained encamped despite several warnings. The detainees were also charged with trespassing and released later; their arraignments are set for July. [Boston Herald](https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/05/10/mit-anti-israel-students-look-for-housing-off-campus-next-steps-of-protest-uncertain/) * Hours later, hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters marched towards the home of Penn's interim president in Philadelphia's University City. At least three people appeared to have jumped over his fence. [NBC10 Philadelphia](https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/upenn-hundreds-protesters-presidents-house/3855806/) * MIT, Penn, and Harvard have been under scrutiny for their handling of the debate on campus over the conflict in Gaza. In a congressional hearing in December, their leaders were ambiguous on whether calling for "Jewish genocide" would violate school policies. [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/mit-harvard-penn-university-protests-antisemitism-030147c9) * Over 2.8K people have been arrested or detained on campuses nationwide since April 18, when the arrest of at least 108 pro-Palestine activists at Columbia University triggered a wave of college protests. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/pro-palestinian-college-protests-encampments.html) **Right narrative:** * The main group behind these encampments, Students for Justice in Palestine, is funded largely by George Soros' charities and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, among other wealthy elites. Organizers are paid thousands of dollars to build these encampments and buy the tents, food, and other resources used in most of them. Foreign money was likely also behind these illegal campus occupations, which is why police were justifiably called in to shut them down. [NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)](https://nypost.com/2024/04/26/opinion/soros-and-other-elites-are-funding-the-campus-agitators-stoking-anti-israel-antisemitic-protests/) **Left narrative:** * The "outside agitator" trope has been used to crack down on peaceful protests for decades. From the Ku Klux Klan lying about "communists" infiltrating the civil rights movement to alleged agitators during the 2020 BLM protests, these evidence-lacking accusations have always existed as an excuse to arrest activists. Today, however, the tactic of calling protesters antisemitic is thrown into the mix, which allows the pro-Israel side to smear anti-Zionists as anti-Jewish. [INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)](https://theintercept.com/2024/05/01/nyc-gaza-college-protests-police-outside-agitators/) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 35% chance that at least half of college students in the US will be studying exclusively remotely or online in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8493/half-of-us-college-students-remote-in-2050/)
www.improvethenews.org
* A study published in Nature Medicine on Monday reports that individuals with two copies of the APOE4 gene are "almost guaranteed" to develop Alzheimer's — if they live long enough. [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/people-with-two-copies-risk-gene-have-genetic-form-alzheimers-scientists-say-2024-05-06/) * Most Alzheimer's cases currently do not have an identifiable cause, with those carrying two copies of the APOE4 gene now believed to make up 15-20% of all cases but just 2-3% of the general population. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/health/alzheimers-cause-gene-apoe4.html) * The study found "almost all" of those with APOE4 homozygosity — the carrying of two identical genes — had more Alzheimer's biomarkers at age 55. By age 65, 75% had positive amyloid scans, proteins linked to neurodegeneration. [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02931-w) * There are three variations of the APOE gene that humans can carry: APOE2, which is thought to protect against Alzheimer's; APOE3, which is neutral; and APOE4, which researchers say should be seen as an inherited form of the disease. [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/health/alzheimers-apoe4-gene-risk/index.html) * The study looked at 3,297 brains and data from over 10K people in Alzheimer's studies. The evidence has led scientists to focus on developing targeted screenings and interventions for those whose Alzheimer's is due to APOE4. [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/health/2024/05/06/study-finds-possible-distinct-genetic-form-of-alzheimers-disease) * APOE4 risk levels differ between ethnic groups, with the study focusing on those of European descent. Alzheimer's treatments on the market, such as Leqembi, can cause life-threatening side effects in APOE4 patients at an elevated rate. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/health/alzheimers-cause-gene-apoe4.html) **Narrative A:** * While frightening on the surface, this news is a boon to Alzheimer's researchers' efforts to find a cure. The identification of APOE4 as a singular cause of the disease in some individuals will unlock new treatments and spur research toward some of the most serious manifestations of the disease, such as early-onset Alzheimer's. [BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-07/is-there-a-test-for-alzheimer-s-new-study-looks-at-genetics) **Narrative B:** * While this is promising research, we can't rely on genetics to solve the disease. Researchers are strongly warning people against APOE4 testing, as the fatalism could cause despair in patients. The scientific community should focus on proven, non-invasive lifestyle treatments, including diet and exercise. [LOS ANGELES TIMES](https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-06-20/alzheimers-treatment-research-genetics-health) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 50% chance that a vaccine for any major neurodegenerative disease will receive regulatory approval by April 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22082/vaccine-against-neurodegenerative-diseases/)
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* Chad held its first presidential elections in more than three decades on Monday, marking the first presidential vote in the African Sahel region following a wave of military coups. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5d0y8xd0yo) * According to Chad's National Election Management Agency, 8.2M people were registered to vote in the election, intended to end the three-year transitional military rule following the death of long-term leader Idriss Déby Itno in 2021. [Voice of America](https://www.voanews.com/a/chad-s-presidential-elections-underway-in-peace-but-with-tension-/7599652.html) * His son and interim president Mahamat Idriss Déby, who took office after rebels reportedly killed his father, is likely to win the election. He faces nine challengers, including his main opponent and current Prime Minister Succès Masra. [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chad-votes-first-sahel-presidential-poll-since-wave-coups-2024-05-06/) * While Déby, reportedly still close to former colonial power and ally France, pledged to improve security, reinforce the rule of law, and boost electricity output, Masra allegedly mobilized more people than expected during his campaign. [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240506-chad-votes-for-president-after-three-years-of-military-rule) * Initially, Déby pledged to return Chad to democratic rule within 18 months, later extending the transition period by two years. Since its independence from France, Chad has never experienced a peaceful electoral transition. [The East African](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/mahamat-deby-stay-in-power-as-chad-votes-to-end-military-rule-4614734) * The election comes as US troops temporarily withdraw from Chad, as provisional results are expected to be returned on May 21 and the final results on June 5. A run-off ballot is set for June 22 if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. [Africanews](https://www.africanews.com/2024/05/06/chad-votes-in-first-sahel-presidential-poll-since-wave-of-coups/) **Pro-establishment narrative:** * After his unconstitutional power grab in 2021, Déby junior is now trying to legitimize his rule through these rigged elections. Not only was a prominent opposition leader killed in the run-up to the election, but there are also voices within Déby's own ethnic group that oppose him. Adding to this is his plan to sever his alliances with the West and pivot towards Russia and the United Arab Emirates. That Déby is set to win the sham elections, does not bode well for Chad's future. [FT.COM](https://www.ft.com/content/b362024b-6fea-45a8-aa5a-4b26d9deae48) **Establishment-critical narrative:** * The mostly peaceful elections are of great significance not only for Chad since it is the first Sahel country to hold elections following a string of regional coups. 221 political parties and associations backed the candidacy of Déby, who pledged to promote fair, just, and efficient governance. That his government called on the US to cease its activities nationwide while approaching Russia proves that Déby is the right candidate to lead his country to a better future. [RT (LR: 3 CP: 1)](https://www.rt.com/africa/597061-chad-presidential-elections/) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 45% chance that Chad will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17829/coup-detat-likelihood/)
www.improvethenews.org
* Israeli forces captured Gaza's Rafah Crossing early on Tuesday after calling for the evacuation of eastern Rafah on Monday. After the evacuation orders were given, Hamas announced that it would accept a cease-fire proposal, but Israel said it did not fulfill its core demands. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-war-05-07-2024-113bf4ee5dad87dc5c003d76ed2785bf) * The UN and other international agencies said that the closing of the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossings effectively cut Gaza off from outside aid. Over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge in Rafah, which is also a crucial logistics point for aid delivery. Hamas accused Israel of trying to undermine cease-fire talks. [Reuters (a)](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-take-control-vital-rafah-crossing-gaza-into-egypt-2024-05-07/) * The recent developments have also fueled tensions between the US and Israel, with Axios reporting that Israeli officials believe that Israel "got played" by the US, accusing it of not being transparent with Israel regarding changes to the cease-fire proposal. In contrast, a US official said, "There have been no surprises." [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/07/us-israel-hamas-hostage-ceasefire-talks) * Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Hamas' acceptance of a cease-fire proposal was "meant to sabotage the entry of our forces into Rafah." Netanyahu argued that Hamas' offer was "very far from Israel’s vital demands." [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-hamas-offer-aimed-at-sabotaging-rafah-op-is-very-far-from-israeli-demands/) * Netanyahu went on to say that capturing the Rafah Crossing was "a very important step" toward destroying Hamas' remaining military and administrative capabilities. Netanyahu also said that Israel's negotiating team in Cairo would "stand firmly" on Israel's demands. [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-hamas-offer-aimed-at-sabotaging-rafah-op-is-very-far-from-israeli-demands/) * Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on Tuesday that there will be no cease-fire if Israel continues to advance in Rafah. Hamdan also said that the Rafah Crossing "was and will remain a purely Egyptian-Palestinian crossing." [Reuters (b)](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-official-warns-no-ceasefire-deal-if-israeli-aggression-gaza-continues-2024-05-07/) **Pro-establishment narrative:** * Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand and must be remedied. Netanyahu must keep his promises, and the US has been clear regarding its position on Rafah. [POLITCO](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/06/israel-rafah-hamas-00156372) **Pro-Israel narrative:** * Israel has reached a decisive point in this conflict. If Israel gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to the nation's enemies that it's weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7., which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war. [JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-800056) **Pro-Palestine narrative:** * The most consistent obstacle in these negotiations has been Netanyahu and his far-right government. If Netanyahu wasn't hellbent on salvaging his political career and if the Biden admin. wasn't so weak, perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, the ball is in Israel's court, and everything must be done to ensure the end of this brutal war on Gaza. [MIDDLE EAST EYE](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/hamas-says-it-accepted-ceasefire-proposal-qatar-and-egypt) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19716/power-in-gaza-strip-on-january-1-2025/)
www.improvethenews.org
* A major data breach has occurred at the British Ministry of Defence (MoD), resulting in the unauthorized access and theft of personal information belonging to military personnel. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/06/uk-military-personnels-data-hacked-in-mod-payroll-breach) * The MoD's third-party payroll system, which houses the bank account details and identities of both former and current armed service personnel, was the target of the hack. The department reportedly acted quickly and disconnected the contractor-run external network. [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ministry-of-defence-parliament-government-grant-shapps-iain-duncan-smith-b2540493.html) * The identity of the breach's perpetrator is unknown. Previously, the UK government had accused both China and Russia of harmful cyber activity. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68966497) * Defense Secretary Grant Shapps is scheduled to provide a briefing to Parliament on Tuesday, where he is expected to present a comprehensive plan aimed at protecting service members' data from cyberattacks. He is reportedly not likely to hold anyone accountable for the attack. [UPI](https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2024/05/07/hackers-access-military-payroll/6651715078730/) * In reaction to the UK claims, Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, stated that Beijing opposes all types of cyberattacks. This was in response to speculation by some British officials about potential PRC involvement. [Global Times](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202405/1311824.shtml) * As reported by the BBC, assailants managed to obtain unauthorized access to several years worth of data about both current and past Royal Air Force, Army, and Royal Navy personnel. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68966497) **Anti-China narrative:** * China's cyberwarfare against the UK must be viewed as a hostile action and should be treated as such. Beijing has clearly demonstrated that it presents a fundamental risk to the UK, and this recent attack must result in a drastic policy shift. This reckless cyber behavior is utterly unacceptable. [UPI](https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2024/05/07/hackers-access-military-payroll/6651715078730/) **Pro-China narrative:** * This is a deliberate and coordinated effort to tarnish China's reputation from beginning to end. The PRC was not involved in the hacking of the UK Ministry of Defense, and Beijing strongly rejects any unfounded allegations of cyberattacks driven by political motivations. This disinformation by the UK is unacceptable. [GLOBAL TIMES](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202405/1311824.shtml) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 44% chance China will carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan's electricity infrastructure before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21805/china-cyberattacks-taiwan/)
www.improvethenews.org
* US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) announced on Monday his intentions to run for a fourth consecutive term in the Senate this year, ending speculation over his potential retirement. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/bernie-sanders-us-senator-vermont-reelection-9ec58ddda558374d3a16414bcdec6b9b) * In a video statement, the former Democratic presidential candidate said that his time in the Senate had been the "honor of [his] life," and stressed that he has been "in a strong position" to offer the kind of support that he said Vermonters need. [Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/06/bernie-sanders-reelection-senate) * He further claimed that the "stakes [were] enormous" for the 2024 elections, calling it "the most important national election" in decades. Democrats — and independents that caucus with them — will defend 23 Senate seats in November. [New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)](https://nypost.com/2024/05/06/us-news/bernie-sanders-82-announces-senate-re-election-bid/) * At 82 years old, Sanders is the second-oldest member of the Senate and heads the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. He has served more than 40 years in public office, including eight terms in the House of Representatives. [thehill.com](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4422712-bernie-sanders-reelection-november/) * Despite having disagreements with the policies of the Biden administration, particularly around the Gaza war, Sanders has endorsed Joe Biden as he claims a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House would threaten democracy. [POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/14/bernie-sanders-joe-biden-endorsement-00147127) * Major party candidates in Vermont face a May 30 filing deadline to appear in the state's primary election in August. A University of New Hampshire poll found last month that 54% of the respondents in Vermont support Sanders running for another six-year term. [VTDigger](https://vtdigger.org/2024/04/23/poll-majority-of-vermonters-want-scott-sanders-to-run-for-reelection/) **Narrative A:** * Following a decades-long advocation of progressive politics, Sanders' decision to seek reelection almost guarantees another four years representing Vermont. While many thought that November might have been the end of the politician's illustrious career, it's clear that there is too much at stake for the veteran to draw the curtains on his career. [WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/05/06/bernie-sanders-seeks-reelection-fourth-term/) **Narrative B:** * Sanders' decision to run for reelection has unsurprisingly been met with much criticism. Irrespective of his influence on the left, age cannot be ignored. Sanders is but one of a long list of Washington elites who must accept their time is up and make way for a new generation of public officials. [NEWSWEEK (LR: 1 CP: 5)](https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-2024-election-senate-progressive-1897607) **Nerd narrative:** * There is a 1% chance that Cris Ericson will win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17716/cris-ericson-vt-senator-in-2024/)
www.improvethenews.org
* Republicans in the US House say they're set to move forward with contempt of Congress charges against Attorney General Merrick Garland on May 16 for refusing to turn over audio of Pres. Joe Biden's interview with the special counsel during Biden's classified docs investigation. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/biden-classified-documents-congress-garland-contempt-7db112d63dd1e8159593c32981caa85d) * House Judiciary Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Oversight Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) have been requesting that the Dept. of Justice (DOJ) turn over the recording — subpoenaing Garland in February and a few weeks ago sending the DOJ a letter giving it 10 days to comply. [Daily Wire (LR: 5 CP: 3)](https://www.dailywire.com/news/house-judiciary-to-begin-contempt-proceedings-against-garland-over-biden-docs-probe-audio) * Special counsel Robert Hur in February concluded his probe and issued a report that said the president "did not willfully break the law" but also described Biden as a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory." [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/05/06/house-judiciary-sets-contempt-proceedings-against-merrick-garland-for-next-week/) * The DOJ provided Congress with a redacted transcript of the interview but has not released audio. Separately, the House has threatened to hold ghostwriter Mark Zwonitzer in contempt if he doesn't turn over records related to writing Biden's memoir. [Washington Examiner](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/2992644/republicans-garland-contempt-audio-biden-hur/) * If the charges are advanced by the committee they would be voted on by the full House. But even if they pass the House they're unlikely to have an impact, as the DOJ would then have to decide to press charges against its own leader. [TheHill.com](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4648539-garland-contempt-vote/) **Republican narrative:** * Hur's reports and testimony make it seem as though the only thing standing between Biden facing the same charges related to the handling of classified documents as former Pres. Donald Trump is the president's loss of faculties. The American people, who are concerned about the 81-year-old's physical and mental health, deserve to hear how he sounded in his interviews with Hur. [BREITBART (LR: 5 CP: 3)](https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/05/06/jim-jordan-schedules-hearing-hold-garland-contempt-congress/) **Democratic narrative:** * Republicans who believe Trump is the victim of a witch hunt are now conducting their own political fishing exhibition in order to distort the president's condition. The DOJ has provided the House with transcripts, and handing over the audio would be superfluous. Upping the heat on Garland could set a dangerous precedent, and the House GOP is acting in bad faith here. [THE DAILY BEAST](https://www.thedailybeast.com/house-republicans-want-to-hold-merrick-garland-in-contempt-over-biden-tape) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 10% chance that Biden will be impeached by the US House, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)
www.improvethenews.org
* Social media app TikTok on Tuesday sued the US government over a law Pres. Joe Biden signed last month to force parent company ByteDance to sell the app to a non-Chinese entity or face a ban. [New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/business/tiktok-ban-appeal.html) * ByteDance, which under the new law faces a Jan. 19, 2025 deadline to divest, argues that TikTok is protected by the First Amendment's guarantee of freedom of expression and that Congress has taken the "unprecedented" step of singling out one social media platform for a ban. [Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-3b4c1fa44c89d4568d26f1c7caf303ec) * The suit also cites commercial, technical, and legal hurdles that make it "simply not possible" for ByteDance to divest. It also highlights the Chinese government's objection to selling the algorithm that's the "key to the success" of TikTok's US success. [USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2024/05/07/tiktok-sues-us-government/73600217007/) * Biden and a bipartisan group of legislators cited national security reasons for passing the law after years of concerns TikTok has shared US user data with the Chinese government. TikTok denies these accusations. [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72pqlgqe4jo) * TikTok wants a court to strike down the law and issue an order preventing the attorney general from enforcing it. [Verge (LR: 2 CP: 3)](https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/7/24151242/tiktok-sues-us-divestment-ban) **Establishment-critical narrative:** * This is a clear First Amendment violation. Without providing any evidence that TikTok is a national security threat, the government is attempting to restrict Americans' access to ideas, information, and media. This law must be overturned. [WIRED (LR: 3 CP: 4)](https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-ban-lawsuit-government-first-amendment/) **Pro-establishment narrative:** * The courts should continue being deferential to Congress when it comes to national security legislation. The public doesn't have the right to see all the classified evidence legislators are privy to, but considering a bipartisan group of lawmakers agrees on this matter, there must be a threat from TikTok. [VERGE (LR: 2 CP: 3)](https://www.theverge.com/24141539/tiktok-ban-bytedance-china-dc-circuit-supreme-court) **Pro-China narrative:** * In a presidential election year, politicians from both sides of the US political aisle think they can score points by bashing China. Yet Biden and others continue to use TikTok. Politics is the only reasonable explanation for this law, and it should be overturned on its merits and because of the hypocrisy of US lawmakers. [CHINADAILY.COM.CN](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202404/26/WS662b00e8a31082fc043c41e7.html) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 25% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19942/tiktok-us-sold-by-2025/)
www.improvethenews.org
* The US Army said Monday that Staff Sgt. Gordon Black was detained in the Russian port city of Vladivostok last week on charges of criminal misconduct. [NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/us-soldier-detained-russia-officials-say-rcna150928) * Black had finished his deployment in South Korea and reportedly traveled to Russia to visit his girlfriend before heading back home to Fort Cavazos, Texas. [BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68966860) * Moscow has notified the US State Department of Black's May 2 apprehension in line with the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. He is accused of stealing from a woman. [Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-soldier-detained-russia-us-official-says-2024-05-06/) * According to a State Department official, the US Embassy in Moscow hasn't yet gained consular access to Black, who is being held in pretrial confinement through July 1. [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/mother-us-soldier-detained-russia-visiting-girlfriend-arrest/story?id=109976395) * Black reportedly traveled to Russia on his own without permission from his superiors. Before his arrest, he said he was interrogated by authorities at the airport for "nine hours." [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/mother-us-soldier-detained-russia-visiting-girlfriend-arrest/story?id=109976395) * In a travel advisory released last September, the State Department warned US citizens to avoid visiting Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine and to "exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions." [Travel](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/russia-travel-advisory.html) **Narrative A:** * Despite Washington's strong warnings about the danger posed to US citizens inside the Russian Federation, Black left South Korea of his own volition. His criminal detention isn't related to espionage or strained US-Russia relations. He has been arrested for committing theft and causing significant psychological damage to a Russian citizen. He must face the consequences of his willful actions. [CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/07/politics/american-soldier-russian-arrest/index.html) **Narrative B:** * Russia has a history of wrongfully detaining prominent US citizens — including Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich — and use them as bargaining chips. Black's arrest will likely aggravate the contentious relationship between Moscow and Washington, which is why the Biden administration must take significant measures to stop the Kremlin from holding any more American citizens hostage. [NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/us/politics/us-soldier-detained-russia.html) **Nerd narrative:** * There's a 10% chance that there will be a US-Russia war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community. [METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/us-russia-war-before-2050/)