Ukraine Sends Reinforcements After Russia Launches Offensive in Kharkiv

• More than two years into the war in Ukraine, Russian forces opened up a new front by launching an offensive towards the northeastern city of Kharkiv in the early hours of Friday. RTE.ie
• Despite being only 25 miles (40 km) from the Russian border, and lying west of the Luhansk region, which is almost completely under Russian control, Ukraine's second-largest city so far hasn't fallen into Russian hands at any point in the conflict. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• However, shortly after securing the Russian presidential election in March, Vladimir Putin appeared to put the city in the Kremlin's crosshairs — stating that Ukrainian strikes into Russia created a need to form what he described as a "sanitary zone." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Coming a day after Russia marked "Victory Day" — celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II — Putin appears to have put plans to take the city into action. The offensive, launched at 5 am local time, was supported by armored vehicles, heavy artillery and the firing of other weapons. UKRINFORM
• In a statement, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said: "As of now, these attacks have been repulsed; battles of varying intensity continue." It added that reinforcements were sent to the region to provide additional support. Reuters
• However, contradicting the official statement, a senior Ukrainian military source told Reuters that Russian forces advanced by roughly 0.6 miles (1 km) near the border town of Vovchansk. Reuters

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Russia is likely hoping to seize on a window of opportunity to grab more territory while Ukrainian troops wait for the new US weapons packages to arrive. The Kremlin knows it will be much more difficult to have any success once the supplies of Ukrainian troops are replenished.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• With Ukraine's Western partners providing it with long-range weapons that have an increased range, it was necessary for Russia to create this buffer zone so that it can keep Russian citizens safe.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 3% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)