Chad Holds Presidential Elections After Years of Military Rule

• Chad held its first presidential elections in more than three decades on Monday, marking the first presidential vote in the African Sahel region following a wave of military coups. BBC News
• According to Chad's National Election Management Agency, 8.2M people were registered to vote in the election, intended to end the three-year transitional military rule following the death of long-term leader Idriss Déby Itno in 2021. Voice of America
• His son and interim president Mahamat Idriss Déby, who took office after rebels reportedly killed his father, is likely to win the election. He faces nine challengers, including his main opponent and current Prime Minister Succès Masra. reuters.com
• While Déby, reportedly still close to former colonial power and ally France, pledged to improve security, reinforce the rule of law, and boost electricity output, Masra allegedly mobilized more people than expected during his campaign. France 24
• Initially, Déby pledged to return Chad to democratic rule within 18 months, later extending the transition period by two years. Since its independence from France, Chad has never experienced a peaceful electoral transition. The East African
• The election comes as US troops temporarily withdraw from Chad, as provisional results are expected to be returned on May 21 and the final results on June 5. A run-off ballot is set for June 22 if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. Africanews

Pro-establishment narrative:

• After his unconstitutional power grab in 2021, Déby junior is now trying to legitimize his rule through these rigged elections. Not only was a prominent opposition leader killed in the run-up to the election, but there are also voices within Déby's own ethnic group that oppose him. Adding to this is his plan to sever his alliances with the West and pivot towards Russia and the United Arab Emirates. That Déby is set to win the sham elections, does not bode well for Chad's future.
  FT.COM

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The mostly peaceful elections are of great significance not only for Chad since it is the first Sahel country to hold elections following a string of regional coups. 221 political parties and associations backed the candidacy of Déby, who pledged to promote fair, just, and efficient governance. That his government called on the US to cease its activities nationwide while approaching Russia proves that Déby is the right candidate to lead his country to a better future.
  RT (LR: 3 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 45% chance that Chad will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)